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All FiveThirtyEight employees, he says, need to land in the upper-left quadrant of the coordinate plane, where they are quantitatively inclined, rigorous and empirical. The adjacent quadrant above the x-axis.. By early October 2008, FiveThirtyEight approached 2.5 million visitors per week, while averaging approximately 400,000 per weekday.[538 4] During October 2008 the site received 3.63 million unique visitors, 20.57 million site visits, and 32.18 million page views.[538 5] On Election Day, November 4, 2008, the site had nearly 5 million page views.[15] Advertising Disclaimer Register and support us without ads

In July 2013, ESPN acquired FiveThirtyEight, hiring Silver as editor-in-chief and a contributor for ESPN.com; the new publication launched on March 17, 2014.[3] Since then, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics and popular culture. In 2018, the operations were transferred to ESPN sister property ABC News. USA TODAY NETWORK via RThe Wisconsin Supreme Court made sure it was not exposed to COVID-19 as Python MIT 96 183 2 2 Updated Oct 28, 2019 candidate-emails HTML 4 5 0 1 Updated Aug 25, 2019 checking-our-work-data All the data behind How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts? 30 94 0 0 Updated Feb 1, 2018 react-color Forked from casesandberg/react-color 🎨 Color Pickers from Sketch, Photoshop, Chrome & more

Politics - FiveThirtyEight

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  1. g 2010 Congressional elections,[538 13][538 14] as well as discussing policy issues and the policy agenda for the Obama ad
  2. 10. 525. Fivethirtyeight wanted to remove me because I appear to lack interest
  3. HTML MIT 19 589 2 0 Updated Oct 8, 2016 gulp-d3-pre Gulp task for pre-rendering d3 with d3-pre
  4. FiveThirtyEight has 23 repositories available. Follow their code on GitHub
  5. Category:FiveThirtyEight. From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. FiveThirtyEight (nb); ファイブサーティエイト (ja); FiveThirtyEight (fr); FiveThirtyEight (zh); FiveThirtyEight (en)..
  6. FiveThirtyEight Map designed by Bethany Heck. Connect with them on Dribbble; the global community for designers and creative professionals

A super PAC that supports Joe Biden. It was created by former top aides to Sen. Bernie Sanders after FiveThirtyEight's weak effort at reporting — a thinly disguised hit piece — is evidence not of how the Church is harming Americans, but of society's Religion. FiveThirtyEight Smears Catholic Hospitals Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and game-changers every week

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On June 16, 2010, Silver announced on his blog that he is willing to give all pollsters who he had included in his rating a list of their polls that he had in his archive, along with the key information that he used (poll marginals, sample size, dates of administration); and he encouraged the pollsters to examine the lists and the results to compare them with the pollster's own record and make corrections.[538 41] Viral posts on social media falsely claim that a House bill would “give the government the power to In general, 538 tends to stick to poll related news, but when discussing politics, they usually slightly favor the left through story selection and wording.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delayed the swearing in of his new unity government until at least Note that this tutorial is inspired by this FiveThirtyEight piece. You can also download the data as a .csv, save to file and import into your very own Python environment to perform your own analysis

For its part in the project, 10up executed a cross-device build and launch of the new FiveThirtyEight site following an aggressive and highly collaborative development sprint on a tight timeline Social media posts targeting former President Barack Obama suggest he will be tried for "treaso

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FiveThirtyEight - Wikipedi

  1. der packages, are of great pedagogical value as they:
  2. In addition, FiveThirtyEight sometimes turned its attention to other topics, such as the economics of blogging,[538 59] the financial ratings by Standard & Poors,[538 60] economists' tendency to underpredict unemployment levels,[538 61] and the economic impact and media coverage of Hurricane Irene (2011).[538 62][538 63]
  3. FiveThirtyEight NBAPredictions Via FiveThirtyEight The Remarkable SEO Power of Republishing. Published on Mar 17, 2016. FiveThirtyEight NBAPredictions Via FiveThirtyEight
  4. g and data-literate reporting. So in addition to written stories, we'll have interactive graphics and features".[538 2]
  5. One unique aspect of the site is Silver's efforts to rank pollsters by accuracy, weight their polls accordingly, and then supplement those polls with his own electoral projections based on demographics and prior voting patterns. "I did think there was room for a more sophisticated way of handling these things," Silver said.[12][21]
  6. FiveThirtyEight is not just a crack team of data-driven journalists. They're also caretakers of a treasure trove of data readily available for our consumption on GitHub
  7. Source: Politico A lawsuit accusing President Donald Trump of violating the Constitution by acceptin

FiveThirtyEight · GitHu

  1. Fivethirtyeight. 11.10.16. Politics
  2. Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting, a progressive nonprofit media watch group, wrote in May 2016 that FiveThirtyEight "sacrificed its integrity to go after Sanders" and that they have "at times gone beyond the realm of punditry into the realm of hackery – that is, not just treating their own opinions as though they were objective data, but spinning the data so that it conforms to their opinions."[60]
  3. FiveThirtyEight and Morning Consult track who did well and poorly in the first debate. UP NEXT. NOW PLAYING: Video. FiveThirtyEight democratic debate poll
  4. With consultation from Andrew Flowers and Andrei Scheinkman of FiveThirtyEight, we go one step further by:
  5. While politics and elections remained the main focus of FiveThirtyEight, the blog also sometimes addressed sports, including the March Madness[538 51][538 52][40] and the 2012 NCAA Men's Basketball tournament selection process,[538 53] the B.C.S. rankings in NCAA college football,[41] the NBA,[538 54][538 55][538 56] and Major League Baseball matters ranging from the 2011 attendance at the New York Mets' Citi Field[538 57] to the historic 2011 collapse of the Boston Red Sox.[538 58]
  6. Cohen, Micah, Rubio is Losing Support Among Republican Voters. FiveThirtyEight

Silver received bids from several major media entities before selecting the Times.[34][35] Under terms of the agreement, Silver would also write monthly articles for the print version of both the newspaper and the Sunday magazine.[538 6] Silver did not move his blog to the highest bidder, because he was concerned with maintaining his own voice while gaining the exposure and technical support that a larger media company could provide. "There's a bit of a Groucho Marx quality to it [Silver has said].... You shouldn't want to belong to any media brand that seems desperate to have you as a member, even though they'll probably offer the most cash".[36] FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on Rachael Dottle, for FiveThirtyEight, looked for political differences in cities and ranked the I still end up with fivethirtyeight-style graphs. Fivethirtyeight was one of the first style sheets I tried, but now I can't seem to get rid of it without using another style sheet, when what I'd really like to do is.. In the final update of his presidential forecast model at midday of November 4, 2008, Silver projected a popular vote victory by 6.1 percentage points for Barack Obama and electoral vote totals of 349 (based on a probabilistic projection) or 353 (based on fixed projections of each state).[538 10] Obama won with 365 electoral college votes. Silver's predictions matched the actual results everywhere except in Indiana and the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska, which awards an electoral vote separately from the rest of the state. His projected national popular vote differential was below the actual figure of 7.2 points.

‎Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and game-changers every week Fivethirtyeight.com's profile on CybrHome. Learn more about FiveThirtyEight or see similar Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about.. Последние твиты от FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight). Data-driven news and analysis from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight filmon:channel. Filmweb. FiveThirtyEight

Final projections of 2008 electionsedit

Jupyter Notebook CC-BY-4.0 7,812 13,449 29 13 Updated Apr 22, 2020 nba-player-advanced-metrics Historical RAPTOR and other NBA data. Last technology detected on 14th September 2018. We know of 6 technologies on this page and 4 technologies removed from fivethirtyeight.com since 3rd February 2010 According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump's national approval rating... In an article published Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight senior editor Ritchie King shared a look into how this happened by analyzing the..

Later, Silver adapted his methods to address a variety of issues of the day, including health care reform, climate change, unemployment, and popular support for same-sex marriage.[23] He wrote a series of columns investigating the credibility of polls by Georgia-based firm Strategic Vision, LLC. According to Silver's analysis, Strategic Vision's data displayed statistical anomalies that were inconsistent with random polling. Later, he uncovered indirect evidence that Strategic Vision may have gone as far as to fabricate the results of a citizenship survey taken by Oklahoma high school students, which led him to denounce Strategic Vision as "disreputable and fraudulent."[24][538 18][538 19][538 20][538 21][538 22][25][a] FiveThirtyEight devoted more than a dozen articles to the Iranian presidential election in June 2009, assessing of the quality of the vote counting. International affairs columnist Renard Sexton began the series with an analysis of polling leading up to the election;[538 23] then posts by Silver, Andrew Gelman and Sexton analyzed the reported returns and political implications.[538 24] On June 6, 2010, FiveThirtyEight posted pollster rankings that updated and elaborated Silver's efforts from the 2008 election. Silver expanded the database to more than 4,700 election polls and developed a model for rating the polls that was more sophisticated than his original rankings.[538 39][28] Showcase » FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight is a polling aggregation website with a blog created by Nate Silver and owned by ESPN The first column of the renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus appeared in The Times on August 25, 2010, with the introduction of U.S. Senate election forecasts. At the same time, Silver published a brief history of the blog.[538 44] All columns from the original FiveThirtyEight were also archived for public access.[37]

Learn about working at FiveThirtyEight. Join LinkedIn today for free. See who you know at FiveThirtyEight, leverage your professional network, and get hired FiveThirtyEight | April 30, 2020. Why Are More Men Than Women Dying of COVID-19 The FiveThirtyEight forecasting model started out pretty simple—basically, it took an average of polls but weighted them according to their past accuracy—then gradually became more intricate FiveThirtyEight's Elo, having changed little during the offseason since Denver's Super Bowl win Model 3: Where Leader disagrees with FiveThirtyEight, make no pick. This tied into an exercise I did..

Controversy over transparency in pollster ratingsedit

Datasets and code published by the data journalism website 'FiveThirtyEight' available at <https Note that while we received guidance from editors at 'FiveThirtyEight', this package is not officially.. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) ate some crow on Thursday night, admitting that he was FiveThirtyEight, the politics and news site Mr. Silver founded, is moving to Disney-owned ABC News after five years at the sports broadcaster, ESPN and ABC News said Tuesday We are involved in statistics and data science education, in particular at the introductory undergraduate level. As such, we are always looking for data sets that balance being:

Beyond electoral politicsedit

Since the 2008 election, the site has published articles—typically creating or analyzing statistical information—on a wide variety of topics in current politics and political news. These included a monthly update on the prospects for turnover in the Senate; federal economic policies; Congressional support for legislation; public support for health care reform, global warming legislation and LGBT rights; elections around the world; marijuana legalization; and numerous other topics. The site and its founder are best known for election forecasts, including the 2012 presidential election in which FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the vote winner of all 50 states. On the eve of the 2016 election, the site's forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance.[6] fivethirtyeight.com. şükela: tümü | bugün. espn'in grantland gibi yan sitelerinden biridir. grantland'in başbuğu bill simmons'ken bu sitenin başbuğu nate silver'dır FiveThirtyEight gained further national attention for beating out most pollsters' projections in the North Carolina and Indiana Democratic party primaries on May 6, 2008. As Mark Blumenthal wrote in National Journal, "Over the last week, an anonymous blogger who writes under the pseudonym Poblano did something bold on his blog, FiveThirtyEight.com. He posted predictions for the upcoming primaries based not on polling data, but on a statistical model driven mostly by demographic and past vote data.... Critics scoffed. Most of the public polls pointed to a close race in North Carolina.... But a funny thing happened. The model got it right."[11] Silver relied on demographic data and on the history of voting in other states during the 2008 Democratic primary elections.[12] FiveThirtyEight. • updated 3 years ago (Version 7). Data and code behind the stories and interactives at FiveThirtyEight. There are 80 Datasets here, included in one place About FiveThirtyEight. Summing up all of FiveThirtyEight's repositories they have 15 own repositories

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During its existence, FiveThirtyEight won numerous awards. These included Bloggie Awards for Best Political Coverage in 2008 and Best Weblog about Politics in 2009 as well as Webbies for Best Political Blog in 2012 and 2013. While under the ownership of ESPN in 2016, FiveThirtyEight won the Data Journalism Website of the Year award from the Paris, France-based Global Editors Network. However, while adopting such an approach in his own analysis, Silver reasoned that there was additional information available in polls from "similar" states that might help to fill the gaps in information about the trends in a given state. Accordingly, he adapted an approach that he had previously used in his baseball forecasting: using nearest neighbor analysis he first identified "most similar states" and then factored into his electoral projections for a given state the polling information from "similar states". He carried this approach one step further by also factoring national polling trends into the estimates for a given state. Thus, his projections were not simply based on the polling trends in a given state.

Find full episodes of our podcasts on iTunes at www.itunes.com/fivethirtyeight and http Stream Tracks and Playlists from FiveThirtyEight on your desktop or mobile device FiveThirtyEight covered the November 3, 2009, elections in the United States in detail.[538 25][538 26] FiveThirtyEight writers Schaller, Gelman, and Silver also gave extensive coverage to the January 19, 2010 Massachusetts special election to the U.S. Senate. The "538 model" once again aggregated the disparate polls to correctly predict that the Republican Scott Brown would win.[538 27] World Trade Organization chief Roberto Azevedo said he would leave his post in August, a year earlie HTML 7 9 0 0 Updated Oct 25, 2018 russian-troll-tweets 187 676 16 1 Updated Aug 27, 2018 redistricting-atlas-data Data used in The Atlas Of Redistricting

Source: NPR Nearly 3 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week – bringing the total t The code of principles of the International Fact-Checking Network IFCN at Poynter is a series of com FiveThirtyEight sought to apply its mathematical models to the Oscars, and produced internal predictions regarding the subject, predicting four out of six categories correctly.[51] The website also compiled a list of other predictions made by other people using different methods.[52]

80 Datasets published by FiveThirtyEight Kaggl

  1. utes (2,475 words). Author: Maggie Koerth-Baker. Source: fivethirtyeight.com. Published: May 26, 2016
  2. ed by the 538 regression estimate.
  3. Fortunately, some publications have started releasing the datasets they use in their articles. Aggregators: FiveThirtyEight - FiveThirtyEight is a news and sports site with data-driven articles
  4. 6 11 0 0 Updated Feb 25, 2016 uber-tlc-foil-response Uber trip data from a freedom of information request to NYC's Taxi & Limousine Commission
  5. Mexico’s drug cartels are distributing food and supplies to poor residents as they struggle to survi

Donald Trump won the election. FiveThirtyEight projected a much higher probability of Donald Trump winning the presidency than other pollsters,[65] a projection which was criticized by Ryan Grim of the Huffington Post as "unskewing" too much in favor of Trump.[70] While FiveThirtyEight expressed that "nonetheless, Clinton is probably going to win, and she could win by a big margin", the forecaster also made a point about the uncertainty of poll trackers in some cases, about a considerable number of undecided voters and about the unpredictable outcome in traditional swing states.[71] The president’s government appointees and allies in Congress are using their powers to generate a po The 2020 U.S. Election. On a daily basis, Morning Consult is surveying over 5,000 registered voters across the United States on the 2020 presidential election. Every week, we'll update this page with the..

FiveThirtyEight - Media Bias/Fact Chec

FiveThirtyEight launched its ESPN-affiliated stage on March 17, 2014. As of July, it had a staff of 20 writers, editors, data visualization specialists, and others.[538 68] By March 2016, this staff had nearly doubled to 37 listed on the masthead, and 7 listed as contributors.[49] The site produced articles under 5 headings: politics, economics, science and health, (cultural) life, and sports. In addition to feature articles it produced podcasts on a range of subjects. theme_excel() theme_economist() theme_fivethirtyeight() theme_tufte() theme_gdocs() theme_wsj() theme_calc() theme_hc()

Archive of the best fivethirtyeight.com stories on Digg including articles, videos, and photos. fivethirtyeight.com. The bag was secure DeSeno told FiveThirtyEight in 2015 that he named his emote after a legendary, turtle-like Japanese monster called the kappa. Kappa is posted around 400 times each minute on Twitch

On September 12, 2011, Silver introduced another writer: "FiveThirtyEight extends a hearty welcome to John Sides, a political scientist at George Washington University, who will be writing a series of posts for this site over the next month. Mr. Sides is also the founder of the blog The Monkey Cage,[39] which was named the 2010 Blog of the Year by The Week magazine".[538 50] CC-BY-4.0 11 16 0 0 Updated Jun 27, 2019 twitter-overlap 3 9 0 0 Updated Jun 12, 2019 actblue-analysis Forked from PublicI/actblue-analysis What does it mean when one organization raises $2.9 billion for democrats? Sen. Elizabeth Warren said, "We are right now at ... 25,000 new infections a day and 2,000 deat

from matplotlib import style. style.use(fivethirtyeight). X, y = make_blobs(n_samples = 100, centers = Biden's Rapid Response Director attacked reporter Catherine Herridge for publishing declassifie FiveThirtyEight.com. 15 Followers 15 Followers. Follow Following. Hot Takedown is the weekly sports podcast from FiveThirtyEight. On it, the crew uses numbers to dissect the week in sports.. These media sources have a slight to moderate liberal bias.  They often publish factual information that utilizes loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by using appeal to emotion or stereotypes) to favor liberal causes.  These sources are generally trustworthy for information, but may require further investigation. See all Left-Center sources.

FiveThirtyEight published a graph showing different growth curves of the news stories covering Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street protests. Silver pointed out that conflicts with the police caused the sharpest increases in news coverage of the protests[538 64] and assessed the geography of the protests by analyzing news reports of the size and location of events across the United States.[538 65] Fivethirtyeight, free and safe download. Fivethirtyeight latest version: Data and code behind the Data and code behind the stories and interactives at FiveThirtyEight is one of the Top Open Sourc.. FiveThirtyEight.com — Infobox Websitename = FiveThirtyEightcaption = url = [http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ www.fivethirtyeight.com] alexa = commercial = Yestype = Opinion poll analysis.. FiveThirtyEight maintains the innovative and entrepreneurial spirit of the original site Nate Silver founded in 2008, while extending its coverage to diverse areas such as sports, politics, economics.. fivethirtyeight Latest Breaking News, Pictures, Videos, and Special Reports from The Economic Times. fivethirtyeight Blogs, Comments and Archive News on Economictimes.com

FiveThirtyEight, the political and sports forecasting blog of Nate Silver will leave it's home at ESPN and for ABC, it was announced on Tuesday. FiveThirtyEight is leaving ESPN, Silver tweeted Tuesday Source: Politico Republicans have won a special election for Congress in Southern California, reclai A 2017 poll by FiveThirtyEight, found just 33 percent of Americans believe Oswald alone killed Kennedy. Some 30,000 never-before-seen or un-redacted documents were released to the public by..

FiveThirtyEight

  1. Note: The code used to pre-process the data can be found on the GitHub repository for the package in the process_data_sets.R files. These can serve as data manipulation/wrangling examples and exercises for more advanced students.
  2. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle
  3. U.S. Senator Richard Burr will step aside as chairman of the powerful Senate Intelligence Committee,
  4. Source: FiveThirtyEight.com Article source: http fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-fivethirtyeight-international-food-associations-2014-world-cup/ Raw..
  5. During the presidential primaries and general election of 2008 the site compiled polling data through a unique methodology derived from Silver's experience in sabermetrics to "balance out the polls with comparative demographic data".[4] Silver weighted "each poll based on the pollster's historical track record, sample size, and recentness of the poll".[5]

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co

FiveThirtyEight. Flavorwire. FLORIDA TODAY. Federal News Service. First Things. FiveThirtyEight Silver responded on 538: "Where's the transparency? Well, it's here [citing his June 6 article], in an article that contains 4,807 words and 18 footnotes. Every detail of how the pollster ratings are calculated is explained. It's also here [referring to another article], in the form of Pollster Scorecards, a feature which we'll continue to roll out over the coming weeks for each of the major polling firms, and which will explain in some detail how we arrive at the particular rating that we did for each one".[538 40]

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How I Outsmarted a FiveThirtyEight Forecasting Algorith

  1. We found 2 dictionaries with English definitions that include the word fivethirtyeight: Click on the first link on a line below to go directly to a page where fivethirtyeight is defined
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FiveThirtyEight Politics Show - PodCenter - ESPN Radi

At base Silver's method is similar to other analysts' approaches to taking advantage of the multiple polls that are conducted within each state: he averaged the polling results. But especially in the early months of the election season polling in many states is sparse and episodic. The "average" of polls over an extended period (perhaps several weeks) would not reveal the true state of voter preferences at the present time, nor provide an accurate forecast of the future. One approach to this problem was followed by Pollster.com: if enough polls were available, it computed a locally weighted moving average or LOESS. An independent analysis of Silver's state-by-state projections, assessing whether the percentages of votes that the candidates actually received fell within the "margin of error" of Silver's forecasts, found that "48 out of 50 states actually fell within his margin of error, giving him a success rate of 96%. And assuming that his projected margin of error figures represent 95 percent confidence intervals, which it is likely they did, Silver performed just about exactly as well as he would expect to over 50 trials. Wizard, indeed".[45][46] Additional tests of the accuracy of the electoral vote predictions were published by other researchers.[47][48]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/. Ответить FiveThirtyEight's newly launched House forecast gives them a 3-in-4 chance of But there are a ton of seats in play -- FiveThirtyEight rates 112 as at least somewhat competitive -- and with more than..

2012 U.S. electionsedit

Want to discover art related to fivethirtyeight? Check out inspiring examples of fivethirtyeight artwork on DeviantArt, and get inspired by our community of talented artists In a long retrospective, "How I Acted Like a Pundit and Screwed up on Donald Trump," published in May 2016 after Trump had become the likely nominee, Silver reviewed how he had erred in evaluating Trump's chances early in the primary campaign. Silver wrote, "The big mistake is a curious one for a website that focuses on statistics. Unlike virtually every other forecast we publish at FiveThirtyEight – including the primary and caucus projections I just mentioned – our early estimates of Trump's chances weren't based on a statistical model. Instead, they were what we [call] 'subjective odds' – which is to say, educated guesses. In other words, we were basically acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates. And we succumbed to some of the same biases that pundits often suffer, such as not changing our minds quickly enough in the face of new evidence. Without a model as a fortification, we found ourselves rambling around the countryside like all the other pundit-barbarians, randomly setting fire to things".[57] From the middle of 2012 until election day, the FiveThirtyEight model updated its estimates of the probability that Barack Obama and Mitt Romney would win a majority of the electoral votes. On election day, November 6, Silver posted his final forecast for each state. On the morning of the November 6, 2012 presidential election, Silver's model gave President Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the electoral votes.[538 67] At the end of that day, after the ballots had been counted, the 538 model had correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[42][d] Silver, along with at least two academic-based analysts who aggregated polls from multiple pollsters, thus got not only all 50 state predictions right, but also all 9 of the "swing states".[43] In contrast, individual pollsters were less successful. For example, Rasmussen Reports "missed on six of its nine swing-state polls".[44] FiveThirtyEight likely uses much more design-centric tools than Excel, but if you are trying to replicate or imitate their design aesthetic - Excel can get you part of the way there Fivethirtyeight.com on Douthat's Democratic Disaster Scenario. Using a prototype of a demographic election calculator that FiveThirtyEight will be unveiling in the next few weeks, I decided to simulate a..

FiveThirtyEight Politics on Apple Podcast

Monthly traffic to the site grew steadily from about 2.8 million unique visitors in April 2014 to 10.7 million unique visitors in January 2016.[50] ..but induce extreme emotions (such as fear) in humans? (read more about the Nightmare Machine on media including The Washington Post, The Boston Globe, The Atlantic, FiveThirtyEight and more! It seems that the flying experience is increasingly spiraling into its own version of Dante's nine layers of hell. If you travel often, you know what I mean. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silve As the primary season was coming to an end, Silver began to build a model for the general election race. This model, too, relied in part on demographic information but mainly involved a complex method of aggregating polling results. In 2008, Rasmussen Reports had an apparently short-term partnership with FiveThirtyEight in order to include this unique methodology for generating poll averages in their "Balance of Power Calculator".[13] At the same time, FiveThirtyEight's daily "Today's Polls" column began to be mirrored on "The Plank," a blog published by The New Republic.[14] Listen to FiveThirtyEight Politics episodes free, on demand. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and game-changers every week

Jupyter Notebook 13.4k 7.8k The final prediction by FiveThirtyEight on the morning of election day (November 8, 2016) was at 10:41AM and had Hillary Clinton with a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election,[64] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.[65][66] FiveThirtyEight's model pointed to the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split widening in final weeks based on both Clinton's small lead in general polls, but also on Trump's improvement in swing states like Florida or Pennsylvania, mixed with Clinton's poor performing in several of those swing states in comparison with Obama's performance in 2012.[67] The main issues pointed out by the forecast model was the imbalance of Clinton's improvement in very populated states like Texas, Georgia (projected safe for Republican) and California (projected safe for Democrats);[67] mixed with her inability to attract white voters without a college degree, an increasing demographic in swing states, in addition to a potential decline in turnout from minorities.[68] In consequence, Clinton's probabilities to win the Electoral College were not improving.[67] Silver also focused on state-by-state numbers in so-called 'must-win' states like Ohio and Florida, plus a consideration of polls' margin of error in advantages of less than three points.[69] Theme inspired by fivethirtyeight.com plots As early as June 2015, FiveThirtyEight argued that Donald Trump "isn't a real candidate"[54] and, until late in the election season, maintained that Trump could not win the nomination.[55] When Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee in May 2016, New York Times media columnist Jim Rutenberg wrote that "predictions can have consequences" and criticized FiveThirtyEight for underestimating Trump's chances. He argued that by giving "Mr. Trump a 2 percent chance at the nomination despite strong polls in his favor ... they also arguably sapped the journalistic will to scour his record as aggressively as those of his supposedly more serious rivals".[56] HTML MIT 3 6 0 0 Updated Jul 14, 2016 d3-pre-cli Command line utility for d3-pre pre-rendering pipeline

It is along these lines that we present fivethirtyeight: an R package of data and code behind the stories and interactives at FiveThirtyEight.com, a data-driven journalism website founded by Nate Silver and owned by ESPN. FiveThirtyEight has been very forward thinking in making the data used in many of their articles open and accessible on GitHub, a web-based repository for collaboration on code and data.Are you a NeverTrump "conservative" who wants to be a journalist? This guide has you cover Hi Product Hunt! I love reading articles on FiveThirtyEight.com, so I decided to make this reader for iOS! You can easily bookmark articles for later, switch between verticals.. The website's logo depicts a fox in reference to a phrase attributed to Archilochus: "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing".[538 2]

2014 U.S. electionsedit

FiveThirtyEight recently unveiled its 2018 NFL predictions, utilizing a model that uses what it calls After the wiseguys got out their lines, FiveThirtyEight shared its computers' simulation-derived work The fivethirtyeight polls have shown a rapid drop in Clinton's percentage and a rapid rise in Donald's percentage over the past few days and that's scaring the crap out of me FiveThirtyEight weighs pollsters' historical track records through a complex methodology[538 8] and assigns them values to indicate "Pollster-Introduced Error". USA TODAY NETWORK via R CoFour Democrats were present at former Vice President Joe Biden’s lat

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2016 Oscars predictionsedit

FiveThirtyEight, the data analysis site founded by statistician-turned-journalist Nate Silver, relaunched Monday under ESPN's ownership, promising stories rooted in statistical analysis, interactive graphics.. In July 2013, it was revealed that Silver and his FiveThirtyEight blog would depart The New York Times and join ESPN.[18] In its announcement of its acquisition of FiveThirtyEight, ESPN reported that "Silver will serve as the editor-in-chief of the site and will build a team of journalists, editors, analysts and contributors in the coming months. Much like Grantland, which ESPN launched in 2011, the site will retain an independent brand sensibility and editorial point-of-view, while interfacing with other websites in the ESPN and Disney families. The site will return to its original URL, www.FiveThirtyEight.com."[19] According to Silver, the focus of FiveThirtyEight in its ESPN phase would broaden: "People also think it's going to be a sports site with a little politics thrown in, or it's going to be a politics site with sports thrown in.... But we take our science and economics and lifestyle coverage very seriously.... It's a data journalism site. Politics is one topic that sometimes data journalism is good at covering. It's certainly good with presidential elections. But we don't really see politics as how the site is going to grow".[20] FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast. This isn't a popularity contest™. Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight

Republicans point to Biden’s name on list of officials with access to Flynn’s identity in an intelli When Silver started FiveThirtyEight in early March 2008, he published under the name Poblano, the same name that he had used since November 2007 when he began publishing a diary on the political blog Daily Kos.[7] Writing as Poblano on Daily Kos, he had gained a following, especially for his primary election forecast on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008.[8][9] From that primary election day, which included contests in 24 states plus American Samoa, Poblano predicted that Barack Obama would come away with 859 delegates, and Hillary Clinton 829; in the final contests, Obama won 847 delegates and Clinton 834. Based on this result, New York Times op-ed columnist William Kristol wrote: "And an interesting regression analysis at the Daily Kos Web site (poblano.dailykos.com) of the determinants of the Democratic vote so far, applied to the demographics of the Ohio electorate, suggests that Obama has a better chance than is generally realized in Ohio".[10]

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FiveThirtyEight's datasets page 1 data

When the transition to The New York Times was announced, Silver listed his staff of writers for the first time.[37] However, of the seven listed writers, only three of them had published on 538/New York Times by late December 2010: Silver, Renard Sexton and Hale Stewart. Andrew Gelman contributed again in early 2011.[538 46] Brian McCabe published his first article in January 2011.[538 47][c] The Trump administration on Thursday issued guidelines to help ship owners and insurers avoid the ri Feature and spot illustration for FiveThirtyEight looking at the big issues of the 2016 American election FiveThirtyEight CFP Odds. Submitted by michiganman001 on November 8th, 2015 at 6:44 PM. So FiveThirtyEight has brought their model back to project the CFP rankings while using FPI to predict.. In July 2008, the site began to report regular updates of projections of 2008 U.S. Senate races. Special procedures were developed relying on both polls and demographic analysis. The projections were updated on a weekly basis.[538 9]

Dissecting a FiveThirtyEight post on baseball payrolls and wins. One of the most professional parts of the FiveThirtyEight charts is that they use the team's actual colors Nate Silver - FiveThirtyEight On October 21st, 2015, the poll analysis blog FiveThirtyEight[3] published an article about Twitch emotes, noting that Kappa dominated as the most popular global emotes on the service. Extensions

Fivethirtyeight.com is tracked by us since April, 2011. Over the time it has been ranked as high as 494 in the world, while most of its traffic comes from USA, where it reached as high as 62 position 538 also reports news on their website that tends to lean left, however, they have been criticized as being opposed to the progressive left. News articles typically utilize moderate to minimal loaded language such as this: How Amy Klobuchar Could Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination. This article relies on proper sourcing from the likes of ABC News, Monmouth University and Senate.gov. A review of news stories reveals a more positive tone toward the left such as this: Trump Is Wrong. When The Opposition Party Runs The House, The President Gets Investigated. fivethirtyeight.com. Visit Website. Follow. fivethirtyeight.com collected this link in fivethirtyeight.com's Hangs. The Jeff Fisher Rams Are An Offensive Tragedy All 127 datasets included in the fivethirtyeight package are listed in the next section. However due to CRAN-hosted R package size restrictions, the following 10 datasets out of 127 only consist of a preview of the first 10 rows of the full dataset. Code to load the full dataset into R are provided in the respective help file example. For example, type ?house_district_forecast into R.Source: Los Angeles Times Federal agents seized a cellphone belonging to a prominent Republican sena

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A Beginner's Guide to Plotting 'FiveThirtyEight Like' Visualization

On September 3, 2014, FiveThirtyEight introduced its forecasts for each of the 36 U.S. Senate elections being contested that year.[538 69] At that time, the Republican Party was given a 64 percent chance of holding a majority of the seats in the Senate after the election. However, Silver also remarked, "An equally important theme is the high degree of uncertainty around that outcome. A large number of states remain competitive, and Democrats could easily retain the Senate".[538 70] About two weeks later, the forecast showed the Republican chances of holding the majority down to 55 percent.[538 71] FiveThirtyEight Was Michael Jordan *actually* the greatest ever? 3d. Now that Democrats have settled on a presumptive nominee, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team discuss their priors for.. Overall, we rate FiveThirtyEight (538) Left-Center Biased based on story selection that slightly FiveThirtyEight, sometimes referred to as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis.. Latest FiveThirtyEight Stories. Nate Silver Says Bloomberg is Slipping in Polls After Debates: He's in 'A Lot of Trouble'. Ezra Klein Apologizes to Nate Silver for 'Careless' FiveThirtyEight Aggregation See FiveThirtyEight's NCAA tournament real-time predictions. The data site is churning out real-time predictions so you know just how likely it is that your bracket will get busted

Why I Started FiveThirtyEight

Listen to the best Fivethirtyeight shows Fivethirtyeight on WN Network delivers the latest Videos and Editable pages for News & Events, including Entertainment, Music, Sports, Science and more, Sign up and share your playlists There’s nothing more defeating than finishing a roll and feeling that moment of panic when you reali

FiveThirtyEight Politics Listen via Stitcher for Podcast

# Секция 7. Построение графиков plt.style.use('fivethirtyeight') length = len(df.index) for i in range(10,length+10): ax = df.iloc[:i].plot(figsize=(12,8), linewidth=5.. FiveThirtyEight rolled out the first iteration of its 2012 general election forecasting model on June 7, 2012. The model forecasts both the popular vote and the electoral college vote, with the latter being central to the exercise and involving a forecast of the electoral outcome in each state. In the initial forecast, Barack Obama was estimated to have a 61.8% chance of winning the electoral vote in November 2012. The website provided maps and statistics about the electoral outcomes in each state as well as nationally. Later posts addressed methodological issues such as the "house effects" of different pollsters as well as the validity of telephone surveys that did not call cell phones.[538 66] FiveThirtyEight, New York, New York. 383K likes. This is the official Facebook page of FiveThirtyEight. See more of FiveThirtyEight on Facebook

FiveThirtyEight applied two separate models to forecast the 2016 Presidential Primary elections – polls-only and polls-plus models. The polls-only model relied only on polls from a particular state, while the polls-plus model was based on state polls, national polls and endorsements. For each contest, FiveThirtyEight produced probability distributions and average expected vote shares according to both models.[53] If you care about accuracy, you should care that millions of people were misinformed by major networ Global coronavirus deaths passed 300,000 on Thursday as infections approached 4.5 million, according On May 30, 2008, Silver revealed his true identity for the first time to his FiveThirtyEight readers.[538 3] After that date, he published just four more diaries on Daily Kos.[7] Find the newest Fivethirtyeight meme. The best memes from Instagram, Facebook, Vine, and Twitter about Fivethirtyeight

In April 2018, it was announced that FiveThirtyEight would be transferred to ABC News (which, as with ESPN, is also part of The Walt Disney Company).[72] He is not included in this interactive. Sources: FiveThirtyEight; YouGov; PredictIt; The Economist For example, Nate Silver, a widely read political journalist writing on The New York Times blog FiveThirtyEight, defined the term swing state this wa plt.style.use('fivethirtyeight'). bmh classic dark_background fast fivethirtyeight ggplot grayscale seaborn-bright seaborn-colorblind seaborn-dark-palette seaborn-dark seaborn-darkgrid seaborn-deep..

FiveThirtyEight Showcase WordPress

FiveThirtyEight is owned by ABC News, which in turn is owned by the Walt Disney Company. The website is funded through online advertising. FiveThirtyEight is tracking the 2016 Oscar race Find GIFs with the latest and newest hashtags! Search, discover and share your favorite Fivethirtyeight GIFs. The best GIFs are on GIPHY FiveThirtyEight uses Elo ratings (described here) to figure out pre-game win probabilities, and to also project out wins and losses for the season. It's not saying X is what will happen, but rather providing a..

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327 604 1 0 Updated Jan 14, 2016 pym.js Forked from nprapps/pym.js Resize an iframe responsively depending on the height of its content and the width of its container. Skip to main content. FiveThirtyEight. Search. PODCAST-19: FiveThirtyEight On The Coronavirus fivethirtyeight Package. Albert Y. Kim, Chester Ismay, and Jennifer Chunn. All 127 datasets included in the fivethirtyeight package are listed in the next section

FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging fivethirtyeight. Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub Source: FiveThirtyEight's article Who Got to Be On 'The Daily Show'? You may have already done visualizations using Matplotlib and Seaborn, yet you may want to improve the aesthetics of your plots Overall, we rate FiveThirtyEight (538) Left-Center Biased based on story selection that slightly favors the left, but does not favor the progressive left. We also rate them High for factual reporting due to proper sourcing of information, a solid record with poll analysis and a clean fact check record. (D. Van Zandt 5/16/2016) Updated (2/12/2019) Get 24 FiveThirtyEight coupon codes and promo codes at CouponBirds. Click to enjoy the latest deals and coupons of FiveThirtyEight and save up to 4% when making purchase at checkout

In April 2010, the Guardian Newspaper published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections. However, by applying his own methodology, Silver produced very different results, which suggested that a Conservative victory might have been the most likely outcome.[27] After a series of articles, including critiques and responses to other electoral analysts, his "final projection" was published on the eve of the election.[538 36] In the end, Silver's projections were off the mark, particularly compared with those of some other organizations, and Silver wrote a post mortem on his blog.[538 37] Silver examined the pitfalls of the forecasting process,[538 37] while Sexton discussed the final government agreement between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.[538 38] In review, FiveThirtyEight is different from other polling sources in that they do not conduct the polls, but rather deeply analyze other polls and apply a strict methodology to determine accuracy. For example, Real Clear Politics simply takes the averages of all polls to come up with a score, whereas 538 uses weights on each individual poll based on demographics and much more. One can argue this is more accurate and 538’s early track record proved it was. However, in 2016 they gave President Trump a 29% chance of winning. This does not mean they were wrong, because they still had a 29% chance of being correct, but they clearly were not very close on this one with their methods. We have also defined a matplotlib style of fivethirtyeight for our plots. We'll be working with a dataset called Atmospheric CO2 from Continuous Air Samples at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, U.S.A.. The forecasts for the Senate proved to be correct for every race. But the near stalemate in Minnesota led to a recount that was settled only on June 30, 2009. In Alaska, after a protracted counting of ballots, on November 19 Republican incumbent Ted Stevens conceded the seat to Democrat Mark Begich, an outcome that Silver had forecast on election day.[22] And in Georgia, a run-off election on December 2 led to the re-election of Republican Saxby Chambliss, a result that was also consistent with Silver's original projection.

On June 3, 2010, Silver announced that in early August the blog would be "relaunched under a NYTimes.com domain".[538 6][16][17] The transition took place on August 25, 2010, with the publication of Silver's first FiveThirtyEight blog article online in The New York Times.[538 7] In order to make the data easily accessible to R novices, we pre-process the original data sets as they exist in the 538 GitHub repository to adhere to the following “tame” data guidelines:Shortly after FiveThirtyEight relocated to The New York Times, Silver introduced his prediction models for the 2010 elections to the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House of Representatives, and state Governorships. Each of these models relied initially on a combination of electoral history, demographics, and polling. The 538 model had forecast a net pickup of 8 seats by the Republicans in the Senate and 55 seats in the House, close to the actual outcome of a pickup of 6 seats in the Senate and 63 seats in the House.[538 45] After President Obama's inauguration, Sean Quinn reported that he was moving to Washington, D.C., to continue political writing from that locale.[538 11] On February 4, 2009, he became the first blogger to join the White House press corps.[538 12] After that time, however, he contributed only a handful of articles to FiveThirtyEight.

Handwashing Technique Is Surprisingly Controversial (fivethirtyeight.com). Is One Generation Taking the Coronavirus Less Seriously Than Others? Not (fivethirtyeight.com) FiveThirtyEight is expected to continue providing data-driven sports coverage that can be utilized by Silver and the FiveThirtyEight staff will become a part of the news division, and Silver and other..

definition - FIVETHIRTYEIGHT COM. definition of Wikipedia. Advertizing ▼. FiveThirtyEight.com weighs pollster's historical track record through a complex methodology[19] and assigns them a value.. FiveThirtyEight - Galen Druke, Clare Malone, Micah Cohen and Nate Silver. The new coronavirus has continued to spread in the United States and markets reacted negatively on Monday Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond Data and code behind the articles and graphics at FiveThirtyEight FiveThirtyEight's Clare Malone introduces us to some skeptical delegates at the Republican National Convention

In spring of 2010, FiveThirtyEight turned a focus on the United Kingdom general election scheduled for May 6, with a series of more than forty articles on the subject that culminated in projections of the number of seats that the three major parties were expected to win.[538 28] Following a number of preview posts in January[538 29] and February,[538 30] Renard Sexton examined subjects such as the UK polling industry[538 31][538 32][538 33] and the 'surge' of the third-party Liberal Democrats,[538 34] while Silver, Sexton and Dan Berman[b] developed a seat projection model. The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election.[538 35] Subsequently, on June 11, Mark Blumenthal also commented on the question of transparency in an article in the National Journal titled "Transparency In Rating: Nate Silver's Impressive Ranking Of Pollsters' Accuracy Is Less Impressive In Making Clear What Data Is Used".[30] He noted that in the case of Research 2000 there were some discrepancies between what Silver reported and what the pollster itself reported. Other researchers questioned aspects of the methodology.[31] Listen to FiveThirtyEight Politics episodes free, on demand. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and game-changers every week

FiveThirtyEight style sheet¶. This shows an example of the fivethirtyeight styling, which tries to replicate the styles from FiveThirtyEight.com This new version of the heatmap, which is interactive on larger screens, uses births by day from 1994 to 2014, thanks for the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight, whose reporters posted the tables on Github for an.. FiveThirtyEight's predictions for each state primary, both for the Republican and the Democratic party nominations, were based on statistical analysis, not on the analyst's opinions. The core data employed were polls, which FiveThirtyEight aggregated for each state (while also considering national polls) using essentially the same method it had employed since 2008. In the 2016 primaries, the projections also took into account endorsements.[61] The website also kept track of the accumulation of national party convention delegates.[62] In a comparison of prediction success published by Bloomberg News after the primary season was completed, FiveThirtyEight's prediction success tied for the highest percentage of correct primary poll winners, at 92%; but it lagged behind PredictWise in predicting a larger set of primaries.[63] Notably, even with FiveThirtyEight's track record of correctly predicting elections that pollsters get wrong, it still missed Bernie Sanders's upset victory in the Michigan primary, for instance, regarded as the 'one of the biggest upsets in modern political history'.[60]

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